Media release from AAA – The Auto Club Group:
Sailing into new waters. AAA is releasing a cruise forecast for the year ahead for the first time ever. This report is comparable to the travel forecasts AAA releases for major holidays. It examines the number of U.S. residents who will take an ocean cruise from a U.S. or international port.
2025 Cruise Outlook
Cruise travel volumes will reach a record high for the third consecutive year. AAA forecasts that 19 million Americans will go on ocean cruises in 2025. This is a 4.5% increase over 2024 when 18.2 million Americans went on cruise vacations. It’s also 34% more than the pre-pandemic peak of 14.2 million in 2019.
“The cruise industry’s focus on bigger ships, shorter itineraries, and private islands has contributed to remarkable growth in recent years,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “Cruise lines have introduced larger ships, which accommodate more guests and have an incredible range of amenities on board. It’s now where the ship itself can be the destination. Many of these vessels sail on short 3–4-night itineraries, which allows for more frequent sailings and the opportunity to sample cruising while visiting a private island.”
Economic Drivers
There is reason to be optimistic about travel in 2025, as most indicators point towards continued growth in incomes and spending. Additionally, consumer surveys suggest the intent to travel remains strong, and consumers still prioritize travel spending.
Popular Cruise Itineraries
Most Americans going on cruises this year are seeking fun in the sun!
- 72% of U.S. cruise passengers are heading to the Caribbean, making it by far the most popular destination. 6% are taking Alaska cruises and 5% will cruise in the Mediterranean.
- The Caribbean’s dominance this year is on par with its pre-pandemic numbers in 2018 and 2019.
- The Caribbean’s share dipped to 68% in 2022-23 as cruises to Alaska and the Mediterranean surged, but destination shares have returned to pre-pandemic norms over the past year.
Shorter Caribbean cruises are rising in popularity. The most common cruise itineraries are 6 to 8 days, yet shorter itineraries are making waves. Cruises for five days or less are projected to rise from 2% of Caribbean cruises in 2023 to 18% in 2025.
The three busiest cruise ports in the world are in the same state: Florida! Miami, Port Canaveral, and Fort Lauderdale are the busiest ports based on embarkation and debarkation. Miami landed the world’s largest cruise ship with the debut of Royal Caribbean’s Icon of the Seas last year. This summer, Port Canaveral welcomes the Icon’s sister ship, the equally large Star of the Seas.
“So much has been included on these new ships, from fine dining to live entertainment, shopping, and activities for all ages,” Haas continued. “Cruising is like staying at a floating all-inclusive resort which delivers you to the world’s most beautiful destinations. It’s an appealing option for large and small family gatherings, holiday celebrations, and a great first trip outside the country.”
You Booked a Cruise … Now What?!
If you’re one of the 19 million Americans going on a cruise this year, AAA Travel has expert advice to ensure your trip is smooth sailing:
- Work with a AAA Travel Agent. They can help set up all aspects of your trip and ensure you have proper documentation, such as passports, which are required for cruises to international destinations. AAA also offers additional benefits and savings that can be combined with those provided by the cruise lines.
- Reserve activities early. Whether it’s an excursion, specialty dinner, or spa treatment, your best bet is to reserve your spot ASAP. Popular cruise activities sell out fast!
- Consider getting travel insurance to protect your investment in case of a medical emergency or another interruption during your trip. Remember, most U.S. health insurance plans do not cover you at international destinations.
- Arrive the day before. If you’re flying into your port city, arrive a day or two before your ship departs. That takes the stress out of worrying about flight delays and cancellations and gives you time to explore your departure city. AAA travel agents can help book your flights so you have a great experience from the time you leave home.
- Have a parking plan. If you’re driving to your port city, decide ahead of time where you will leave your car. Most cruise ports offer parking right at the terminal, but like airports, those spots come at a premium price. To save money, look for off-site cruise port parking options offering a shuttle service. Another option is to look for hotels near the cruise port that offer “park & cruise” options. These packages allow you to stay at the hotel the night before your cruise and park your car there while you’re gone. The hotel will then take you to the cruise port on departure day and pick you up once you return.
- Download the cruise line’s app. You can check in for your cruise through the app, review the itinerary, complete the mandatory lifeboat drill, look at the daily program, and, in some cases, open your stateroom door, order food, make dinner reservations, and text your friends. Best of all, you don’t need the ship’s internet package to use cruise line apps – they are free to use onboard!
- Do your homework before packing. Check your cruise line’s list of prohibited items ahead of your trip. Each company has a different list, from irons and steamers to certain foods and beverages, so take the time to look up what you can and can’t bring on board. Otherwise, your items will be confiscated.
- Items that come in handy. If you’re going on a Caribbean cruise, sunscreen is a must, and bringing it from home saves you money. In general, sundries onboard are more expensive. If you take prescription medications, bring extra if there is a delay during your trip. Magnetic hooks are popular with passengers who need extra storage space. Since cruise cabin walls are metal, hooks are handy for hanging swimsuits and towels. Colorful beach towel clips are also helpful at the pool deck to keep your towel in place and help you identify your lounge chair when you come back from taking a dip!
- Embarkation dos and don’ts. Some cruise lines have scheduled embarkation times. Do arrive at your assigned embarkation time. Don’t try to get there early and hope they will let you on – they likely won’t. Don’t pack your passport or birth certificate in your suitcase. Always have your documentation, including a copy of your boarding pass. You will be denied boarding if you do not have proper identification when checking in at the port. If you check your suitcase with a porter, your bag may not arrive at your stateroom for a few hours. Pack a small carry-on with your swimsuit so you can change immediately and start the fun!
- Having fun? Run it back! If you’re enjoying your vacation at sea, look for the future cruise office onboard to book your next trip. There are often special promotions like onboard credits on top of the regular cruise line offers for bookings made onboard. Your travel agent back home will also be notified about your new booking. Just don’t wait until the last minute. The office gets busier as the final day of the cruise approaches, so stop by early in the trip or make an appointment if the office takes reservations.
Cruise Forecast Methodology
In cooperation with AAA, Tourism Economics prepared the 2025 cruise forecast based on scheduled cruise itineraries covering virtually all major cruise vessels, the economic outlook, and travel sector trends. This forecast relies on cruise-related analytics from Cruise IP (Tourism Economics’ proprietary database for the cruise industry), economic forecasts prepared by Oxford Economics, and assumptions on the tourism industry’s future path.
In this analysis, U.S. cruise passenger volume refers to ocean cruises taken by U.S. residents, including cruises that depart from U.S. or international ports.
About Tourism Economics
Tourism Economics is an Oxford Economics company with a singular objective: combine an understanding of the travel sector with proven economic tools to answer our clients’ most critical questions. More than 500 companies, associations, and destinations work with Tourism Economics annually as a research partner. We bring decades of experience to every engagement to help our clients make better marketing, investment, and policy decisions. Tourism Economics operates out of regional headquarters in Philadelphia and Oxford, with offices in Belfast, Buenos Aires, Dubai, Frankfurt, and Ontario.
Oxford Economics is one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts, and analytical tools on 200 countries, 100 industrial sectors, and over 3,000 cities. Our best-of-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social, and business impact. Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centers in London, New York, and Singapore, Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in Belfast, Chicago, Dubai, Miami, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington DC; we employ over 250 full-time staff, including 150 professional economists, industry experts and business editors—one of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists.
